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49 Days Lockdown maybe required for India - forecast

From the Paper: A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures.

Published 29 March 2020 1 min read

By Jagan Mohan R, MD

49 Days Lockdown maybe required for India - forecast

A paper published on arXiv has presented a mathematical model of the spread of infection in a population, structured by age and social contact between ages, which predicts that 49 days of mitigatory social distancing through lockdown would be necessary for India to successfully overcome the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.

The Authors, Rajesh Singh and R. Adhikari are from the DAMTP, University of Cambridge and the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, India respectively.